Behind Bittensor’s Subnet 123, one name already resonates strongly: MANTIS. An ambitious “signal machine,” radical in design, and deployed with a scientific rigor rarely seen in the ecosystem.
MANTIS is not just trying to predict the price of Bitcoin. It aims to redefine what useful information is, and how to measure it, extract it, and reward it.
The Philosophy: Rewarding Useful Intelligence
The founding idea is simple but powerful: 👉 not all information is equal.
A good signal is not one that shines on its own, but one that improves the collective prediction. In other words: the value of a signal is marginal, measured by the impact it has when added to (or removed from) the whole.
To capture this, MANTIS uses a counterfactual approach:
- Miners submit their embeddings (numerical predictions).
- A model (initially an MLP, since replaced by XGBoost) combines them.
- The miner’s signal is removed, and the change in Mean Absolute Error (ΔMAE) is measured.
➡️ If the error increases, the miner is useful ➜ rewarded. ➡️ If nothing changes, the signal was redundant ➜ ignored.
This system pushes miners to seek rare, orthogonal, complementary signals. It breaks the logic of mimicry and turns competition into a driver of collective exploration.
A clear philosophy: reward useful intelligence, not individual ego.
How It Works
The mechanics are simple to explain without oversimplifying:
- Miners send encrypted predictions (commit-reveal).
- Later, they’re unlocked and integrated into XGBoost.
- Each signal is evaluated for salience: does it bring something new that improves global prediction?
- Rewards are distributed proportionally to this marginal value.
To prevent cheating, MANTIS has safeguards:
- Verifying that predictions actually come from the miner declaring them.
- Filtering out bad data.
- Deliberately ignoring flat periods (low volatility) to avoid easy gains.
Each result is written on-chain, ensuring transparency of the process.
An Architecture That Constantly Evolves
MANTIS is not static: it adapts, pivots, improves. Since July 2025, several major updates have been rolled out:
- Transition from raw ΔMAE to a Shapley value approximation — better at measuring unique contributions.
- Migration from MLP ➜ XGBoost for greater robustness against noise.
- Dimensionality reduction from 100 ➜ 2 for non-BTC embeddings.
- Extension to 10 assets (BTC, ETH, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CADUSD, NZDUSD, CHFUSD, DXY, XAUUSD, XAG).
- Adoption of a new DataLog structure for better tracking of submitted signals.
A public dashboard now illustrates this multi-asset logic.
The Unique Role of Alpha Holders (DTAO)
MANTIS introduces a real revolution in Bittensor: holders are not passive. Through the DTAO token, they can steer subnet emissions.
This means, for the first time:
- Miners produce signals.
- Validators evaluate them.
- But holders decide which markets, which assets, and which loss functions deserve priority.
In short: MANTIS is a mini-Bittensor within Bittensor. A modular subnet where miners and holders both shape governance and incentives.
An Economy Designed to Last
Currently, MANTIS captures about 0.60% of network emissions, with a root around 62.19% (source:
). Liquidity remains low, causing strong price swings.
But several levers are in place to stabilize the economy:
- A buyback program announced within the next two months.
- The possibility of reselling signals to funds or platforms.
- The idea of leveraging other subnets (like SN8, specialized in prediction) and redistributing rewards to DTAO holders.
A sustainable economic loop designed to align network growth with token value.
Scientific Rigor: No Illusions, No Cheating
MANTIS embraces its limits.
- The first 5,000 minutes of data were excluded from backtests (random signals).
- In strict simulation (no UID reused), results dropped by 5x. ➡️ But this transparency is acknowledged, unlike most projects that embellish performance.
It’s an empirical, honest approach that builds trust: tested like a scientific lab, not marketed like a flashy product.
Why the “Big Brains” Care
Respected voices in the ecosystem, like
, quickly highlighted MANTIS’ uniqueness:
“I want my alpha doing more than just sitting staked on validators. I want to be part of deciding which signals matter, and be influential based on alpha holding where subnet emissions go.” –
👉 For them, MANTIS gives holders an active role, while most subnets limit them to passive staking. 👉 The community doesn’t grow on artificial hype: it grows slowly, grounded in a clear vision. 👉 MANTIS has a unique chance to build the most durable alpha economy in Bittensor.
This is the project’s DNA: a collective, modular machine where every signal and every vote counts.
A Long-Term Vision
MANTIS is still young, but its trajectory is clear:
- Don’t limit itself to crypto.
- Expand into forex, metals, prediction markets, sports.
- Build a universal market for time-series signals.
As Barbarian put it:
“We’re going to create a mini-Bittensor inside MANTIS. Determine the optimal assets, loss functions, models, embeddings… and apply this mechanism to any time-series task.”
In other words: MANTIS is not an app, it’s infrastructure.
Conclusion: Why MANTIS Attracts
- A radical yet rigorous concept: rewarding unique informational value.
- Participatory governance: miners + holders.
- A sustainable economy (buyback, signal monetization, interoperability).
- A modular vision making it more than just a prediction subnet.
MANTIS is not yet mature, but it already has what many projects lack: a solid design, a clear philosophy, and a community that believes in its mission.
That’s why some of the ecosystem’s sharpest minds are betting on it. Because it’s not just about predicting a price — it’s about building the ultimate signal machine.
➡️A new update is imminent, stay tuned
Useful Links
- 🔗 Official GitHub: github.com/Barbariandev/MANTIS
- 🔗 Whitepaper: github.com/Barbariandev/MANTIS/blob/main/whitepaper.md
- 🔗 MANTIS on X: @MANTISBittensor
- 🔗 Barbarian on X: @Barbarian7676
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