Key takeaways:
XRP’s NUPL metric signals a potential local top, mirroring historical denial-phase reversals.
Institutional investors are pulling back from XRP, with $56.6M in monthly ETP outflows.
A falling wedge pattern suggests a 22–38% downside risk unless XRP breaks key resistance.
XRP (XRP) has rebounded by more than 40% since April 7 lows to around $2.50 on June 4. Still, the price remains 37% below its January 2025 peak of $3.40, raising concerns about XRP’s ability to rise higher.
Will XRP’s price drop from the current levels in the coming days?
XRP onchain metric signals price top
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “Belief — Denial” phase, a stage that often signals a local top.
Historically, this zone’s 30-day simple moving average has coincided with moments when most holders are in profit but lack the conviction to hold through volatility, resulting in distribution.
In 2021, XRP hit this same green zone before reversing sharply from around $2, unable to break into true euphoria.
The current sentiment reflects a similar setup. If XRP fails to generate significant follow-through to its prevailing rebound in the coming weeks, history suggests a pullback is likely.
Investors de-risk from XRP investment products
Institutional demand for XRP investment products appears to be waning, according to data from CoinShares.
XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) posted the largest weekly outflow of $28.20 million in the week ending May 30, bringing their outflows for the month to $56.60 million.
Other top-cap altcoins such as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Sui (SUI) recorded net inflows of $321.40 million, $1.5 million, and $2.2 million, respectively, indicating a decreased institutional appetite for XRP products, which may hurt prices.
XRP wedge indicates a 22-38% price crash ahead
As of June 4, XRP was undergoing a pullback after testing the upper trendline of its prevailing falling wedge pattern.
Previous pullbacks from the same resistance line have resulted in sharp corrections, including a 45% decline in March toward the wedge’s lower trendline.
The fractal setup increases XRP’s odds of declining toward $1.78, a level down 22% from the current price levels and further aligning with the wedge’s lower trendline and the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).
In the worst-case scenario, XRP’s price could slip toward the wedge’s apex point at $1.45, down by over 38% from current levels.
Related: XRP price risks a 20% crash to $1.70 — Here is why
Falling wedges are considered bullish reversal setups. So, a clear breakout above the pattern’s upper trendline could send the price as high as the wedge’s height, per the technical rule.
That puts XRP’s upside target at around $3.66—a new record high—considering the price breaks above the current upper trendline resistance near $2.23.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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