This video breaks down Bittensor ($TAO) through a broader market lens, arguing that TAO’s next move will likely depend heavily on what Bitcoin does next.
At the time of recording, Bitcoin was trading just under $76,000, while TAO sat around $190. The host also disclosed that he currently holds no TAO position, framing the analysis as neutral rather than biased.
Bitcoin Is the Real Driver Here
The first part of the video focuses on Bitcoin’s weekly chart and one key signal: the 50-week moving average.
Bitcoin falling below the 50-week MA has historically been an early warning sign of bear market conditions. In previous cycles, once BTC dropped below that level, it often continued down toward the 100-week and eventually the 200-week moving average.
He suggests that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could drift toward the 200-week MA, which currently points to a possible downside target near $58,000 to $60,000.
His main argument is simple:
If Bitcoin keeps bleeding, the rest of the crypto market is likely going down with it, including TAO.
Applying the Power Amplitude Index to TAO
The main tool used in this video is the Power Amplitude Index (PA/PI), an indicator that assigns TAO a score between 0 and 1 based on its historical price behavior.
- Lower PI (blue) = historically better buying zone
- Higher PI (red) = historically overheated territory
At the time of analysis, TAO’s PI value was around 0.239, with TAO priced near $190–$196.
His interpretation: TAO is closer to the lower end of its historical range, but not at a “maximum oversold” extreme.
The $160 Level: Where the Model Suggests a Stronger Bottom
Based on TAO’s historical PI behavior, the host points to $159–$160 as a price level where TAO would statistically align with a stronger “bottom zone.”
He makes it clear that this is not a guaranteed floor, but rather a historical probability zone.
Why He Thinks TAO Is in a Bearish Phase
One of the most important sections of the video is the host’s attempt to determine whether TAO is in a bull or bear environment.
He compares TAO’s current PI behavior to what the indicator predicted 180 days ago.
The result is not encouraging.
TAO ended up performing below the model’s median expectation, landing closer to the bottom 10th percentile of outcomes.
To him, that suggests TAO is currently behaving like an asset in a bearish cycle, not a healthy uptrend.
A Simple Strategy He Prefers: The “0.5 PI Rule”
Instead of trying to perfectly time the bottom, the host introduces a trading approach he believes is more realistic.
The rule is straightforward:
- Buy when PI crosses above 0.5
- Sell when PI crosses below 0.5
This strategy focuses on catching trend shifts rather than guessing the lowest price.
According to his chart, the 0.5 PI level currently aligns with TAO around $250.
Meaning: in his framework, TAO does not become a “confirmed buy” until it reclaims that zone.
Buy-and-Hold vs PI Strategy Performance
The host compares two approaches:
1. Buy and Hold
If someone bought TAO and held through the full cycle, the model suggests they would currently be down roughly 15%.
2. PI 0.5 Crossover Strategy
Using the 0.5 PI entry and exit signals, the model suggests a gain of about 25% over the same period.
It is not a moonshot strategy, but he frames it as a more defensive approach for uncertain markets.
His Bottom Line on TAO Right Now
The video’s overall view is cautious.
Even though TAO is statistically closer to its lower range, he believes the larger issue is Bitcoin’s market structure. If BTC continues sliding below the 50-week moving average, alts like TAO may not find stable footing.
His stance can be summarized like this:
- TAO is not expensive here
- But it may not be the bottom
- The bigger risk is Bitcoin dragging everything down
- A more “confirmed” entry signal appears around $250, if TAO regains bullish momentum
Take note, the model discussed in this video assumes the future behaves like the past, and no indicator can fully eliminate risk in crypto markets.
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