Analyzing Grayscale’s Form 10 Filing: Is a $TAO ETF on the Horizon?

By: Andy

A Familiar Pattern Emerges

Grayscale just filed a Form 10 with the U.S. SEC for the Grayscale Bittensor Trust—and if history is any guide, this move signals something much bigger on the horizon.

It’s the exact regulatory playbook that paved the way for both the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

• $BTC → $GBTC → ETF
• $ETH → $ETHE → ETF
• $TAO → ?

The Grayscale Playbook

This isn’t speculation—it’s a proven regulatory sequence that Grayscale has repeated for every major crypto asset it has institutionalized.

What Just Happened

On October 10, 2025, Grayscale officially filed a Form 10 with the SEC for its Bittensor Trust.

This filing marks the first step toward becoming an SEC reporting company, establishing the same regulatory framework that once transformed Bitcoin and Ethereum into mainstream, institutional-grade assets.

Grayscale is now applying that same strategy to Bittensor ($TAO).

What Form 10 Means Structurally

1. OTC Markets Public Quoting
   $TAO Trust shares will be tradable on OTC Markets—like $GBTC and $ETHE before ETF conversion.
   → More liquidity and access for non-crypto investors.
2. Section 12(g) Registration
   Shares become registered under the Exchange Act, placing them under full SEC oversight.
   → Institutional-grade compliance.
3. Mandatory SEC Reporting
   The Trust must file 10-Ks, 10-Qs, audited financials, and 8-Ks.
   → Full transparency for allocators and analysts.
4. Lockup Period Cut in Half
   After 90 days as a reporting company, the holding period for private placements drops from 12 months to 6 months.
   → Faster capital rotation and deeper liquidity.
5. Bridge to ETF Conversion
   Form 10 is the on-ramp to ETF status.
   → The same playbook used for BTC and ETH—now for $TAO.

Why This Matters More Than Most Realize

This filing isn’t just regulatory paperwork—it’s the gateway to institutional capital.

Before Form 10, most large investors couldn’t touch $TAO: no compliance framework, no vehicle, no regulatory clarity.

After Form 10 goes into effect:

✅ Pension funds can buy
✅ Endowments can allocate
✅ RIAs can recommend
✅ 401(k)s can include
✅ Hedge funds and family offices can deploy

In short, trillions in potential capital just became accessible.

The Signal Behind the Move

Grayscale doesn’t file Form 10s for speculative tokens. They select assets capable of sustaining multi-billion-dollar trust products and attracting institutional demand.

• BTC — check
• ETH — check
• TAO — check

This filing is a vote of confidence at the highest level—proof that $TAO has entered the institutional conversation.

The Liquidity & Regulatory Flywheel

Grayscale’s sequence is now in motion:

• OTC listing → more buyers
• Shorter lockup → faster turnover
• SEC oversight → institutional trust
• ETF bridge → exponential liquidity

This is how regulatory clarity transforms into price discovery.

The Timeline That Matters

• Q4 2025: Form 10 becomes effective (60–90 days), OTC listing goes live
• Q1 2026: First institutional inflows, 10-Q filed, awareness grows
• Q2 2026: Six-month lockup activates, liquidity deepens
• Q3–Q4 2026: $500M–$1B AUM possible, ETF narrative accelerates
• 2027: ETP/ETF conversion—potential institutional floodgates open

Conclusion: The Next Chapter for $TAO

This isn’t a short-term catalyst—it’s a structural unlock.

Grayscale’s move positions Bittensor ($TAO) to follow the same trajectory as Bitcoin and Ethereum:
from cypherpunk roots to a regulated institutional asset.

If history rhymes, the Grayscale Bittensor Trust could become the foundation for the next wave of decentralized AI capital markets.